Input Elements to Consider while Drawing a Corporate Strategy in today’s Information and Communications Technology Accelerated Business Environment
Luis Guillermo Echeverri Vélez
January 2020
Prepared for Ecopetrol’s Board of Directors
and Staff Management by:
Luis Guillermo Echeverri Vélez
Agricultural Economist form Cornell University
Chairman of the Board of Ecopetrol S.A.
Chairman Asociación Primero Colombia
With the collaboration of:
Orlando Ayala
Senior Vice President in Emerging Markets at Microsoft
Member of the Board of Ecopetrol S.A.
Member of Misión de Sabios for Colombia’s Government
Special thanks to María Isabel Magaña for her editing assistance.
Executive Summary
Anticipation is the name of the game in a global environment driven by the velocity of change.
Nations, governments, and businesses that do not identify themselves as technology-driven entities, in whatever industry, industrial area, or sector they function and trade, are bound to disappear during the next Information & Communications Technology cycle.
The purpose of this outline is to set the basis for a forthcoming paper that will allow us to understand the current global trends that are affecting our ability to not only survive, but to create value and thrive in a changing geopolitical, economic, and technology-driven context.
At the same time that cultures and standards progress from what is known as the ICT knowledge revolution, civilization, and our planet experience massive changes that have been exponential due to population shifts and man’s footprint. Thus, we are responsible for generating more significant problems and challenges like global warming and climate change, human knowledge disparities among social groups, and the negative contrasts brought on by technical advances and political, legal, and regulatory lags and disagreements.
Therefore, this simple but comprehensive list of global facts and trends emphasizes the need for a multicultural understanding and coexistence of ethical principles, morally driven working ethics, and common-sense reasoning, as mandatory policy reference and political behavior in this new vertiginous, changing time.
The global battle for talent is well underway. As developed nations search for a new way of rethinking educational systems, developing countries such as Colombia must heed the call of adapting to a new age.
We need to induce our leadership to find ways to incorporate the significant disrupting technological convergence that is challenging our society to our laws and social agreements: Socially, Economically, and Politically. In doing so, we must create a new ethical framework, where intelligent legislation becomes critical to be able to progress as a nation, society, and individual communities.
Augmented Reality, along with Artificial Intelligence, needs to be incorporated in the learning process, centered in the student profile, in a new era where we all have to study, adopt and adapt to change continually. We need to work with systems that get and give automatic feedback transparently as students interact with the ecosystem of digital content that allows the human being to learn to explore and to manipulate concepts and things in a precise way. We refer to deep learning technology that can teach students of all ages to learn how to learn by doing. We need to prime educational systems to function for the vocational talents that the future is already demanding. We need a shift from the universal educational system that emphasizes unstructured freedom to that of an “early bet” model, where individuals’ aptitude is identified early on to excel at their best. Today’s education models are failing to gain traction in elementary schools and universities.
This new era requires algorithms that engineers alone are not capable of creating; the right brain thinking will be in higher demand as the technology continues to shape our workforce. We need to prepare talent by educating professionals to understand these new dynamics. Digital lawyers; philosophers; anthropologists, sociologists; phycologists; medical doctors; and many other professionals have to evolve, understanding change in order to produce content that nurtures the new frontier.
Besides connectivity, human healthcare is the fastest-changing factor in our lives. Along with education is the other new frontier that ICT Convergence is changing at an exponential pace. Nations that do not upgrade their educational and healthcare systems immediately are also condemned to be left behind in a new historical version of obscurantism.
Our nations lack leadership that understands the implications of the realities that during the last two decades became constantly evolving concepts. Technological advances already left behind and made obsolete, issues such as electoral rhetoric, conventional international diplomacy, batter politics, and political parties, as ways of solving new problems in society.
There is a search for new functional models. Current education, job training, legislating, and regulations systems are obsolete. We also have to revisit foundational principles such as the declaration of human rights, which today shall include new individual social obligations and rights such as the limits to privacy invasion and invisibility.
Content
SECTION I
Today’s General Global Context
1.1 Economic projections for 2020. Global & Local.
1.2.1. Global Politics
1.2.2. Global Technology, Energy and Climate Change
1.2.3. Preliminary Conclusions
1.2 Significant Global Geopolitical Situation and Risks.
1.3 USA - China Dynamics. Trade, Cultural, Military & ICT Considerations.
1.4. Major shifting ICT Concepts and Cybersecurity Concerns.
1.5. Increasing Business Risks. ICT & the Genetic industry are changing the world very fast.
1.6. The On-going Battle for talent creation, recruitment & retention.
1.7. The Need to rethink basic concepts and functionality of Education, legal and regulatory frameworks, systems, and institutions.
SECTION II
General ICT related Economic Trends in Business and Society
2.1 Digitalization as the driver in most, if not all, living aspects
2.1.1. Everything is already Digital and Data-driven.
2.1.2 Digital Transportation Revolution is here.
2.1.3. Understanding Technology Convergence as today’s overall Main Stream.
2.2. (ESG) Environmental Social & Governance Practices > + Technological change
= (TESG)
2.3. The critical importance of mineral mining for communications, energy, health, and technological change.
2.4. Growth of Autonomous Equipment is here.
2.5. Continue Consolidation of Small and Medium Business.
2.6. Demographics & Social changes disruptions.
2.7. ICT changes will amplify social disparities.
2.8. Major shifts in Skill Requirements.
2.9. The transportation revolution is coming, and it affects the demand for Oil and GAS.
2.10. We are living in a technology service and technology experiences boom.
DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
SECTION I
Today’s General Global Context
1.1. Economic Projections for 2020. Global & Local
- There is no perceived major recession effect in 2020.
- There are no ingredients that may detriment the current stage of the economy.
- In 2019 the US economy experienced a recession from a cool-down market effect.
- In 2019 the US economy experienced a recession from a cool-down market effect.
- We live a combination of a low growth cycle (mild recession) with cautionary markets.
- Economies are suffering the cost of absorbing fundamental technological changes.
- In general, the ICT revolution and Internet penetration created new social living standards.
- Colombia may hope and work for a positive 4% GDP 2020.
- Due to populism and political misconduct and instability, the entire LATAM region is suffering economic growth stagnation.
1.2. Significant Global Geopolitical Situation and Risks
1.2.1. Global Politics
Extended information and sources on this link
- Power is driven by digital ecosystems, data processing, microprocessors, satellite, ITC, and Ballistic Capabilities. Soon all ICT convergence would be the main source of global power.
- Power is driven by digital ecosystems, data processing, microprocessors, satellite, ITC, and Ballistic Capabilities. Soon all ICT convergence would be the main source of global power.
- The distinction between symmetrical and asymmetrical wars is a critical matter.
- US/China Dynamics. Will the US accept China’s transformation from being an emerging country into a dominant power?
- US/China's Cultural understanding is the main geopolitical condition for global progress.
- US Election year's related matters will have a dramatic global impact.
- China-Russia's "convenience alliance" appears to continue as long as US-China disputes.
- There is a quiet ongoing dispute about the South China Sea.
- The UAE and west friendly nations are in the crossroads of East and West.
- Brexit > will have a strong impact domestically, in Europe and the entire UK system.
- Current political troubles in Spain will harm LATAM policy-making.
- Latin America and the Caribbean basin are not significant in mayor geopolitical considerations.
- The wave of digital internationally connected protests is a worldwide adverse trend.
- Populistic driven political dynamics are becoming a heavy burden on government acceptance.
- Terrorism is a major global concern not to be ignored.
- The Middle East and European – US interests and divisions are coming head to head.
- None of the actors of the geopolitical issues in the Middle East have full control.
- Middle East Conflicts – A fight for Economic hegemony – Iran, Pakistan, S. Arabia, others.
- Problems and conflicts will remain among opposites within the Middle East region.
- Hostilities will remain but will not escalate. Nations fear a massive destruction wipe-out.
- The US is executing a plan related to Iran.
- Fight against Terrorism and organized crime is a must if legality is going to be the ethical base for further ICT development. Suleimani's elimination was mandatory. No one has murdered more people lately.
1.2.2. Global Technology, Energy, and Climate Change
- Velocity: The most fundamental issue is the speed of technological change: V=ƒ(∆ICT)n.
- Ethical & technological change balance: the main concern as evolution speeds-up.
- Intellectual property is critical to every day for business sustainability.
- Energy transition and technological progress will continue to require minerals extraction.
- The energy transition is here, though, at different paces and different phases.
- There is a critical impact of tectonics on the O&G and energy sectors.
- Global warming and climate change are making the meridional zones more tropical.
- Global warming will continue to affect the global economy, particularly agriculture & forests.
- Deforestation and oil spills caused by narcoterrorism can be eliminated with political will, associated with current technological advances in satellite technology.
1.2.3. Preliminary Conclusions
1.2.3.1- Social and environmental sustainability can only be obtained by the combination of economic development and rapid absorption of technological change. Economic development is correlated to economic growth, and it requires technical mineral extraction with proper mitigation and social compensations and enhancing construction and job-creation to accelerate the velocity of economic activity.
1.2.3.2- Technology rapid developments are the only hope to mitigate Global Warming causes & effects.
1.2.3.3- Corruption; misleading erroneous governing; drug production; narco-terrorism; and narco-trafficking can be prevented and combated with science and technology. Such implementation can end their negative effect on climate change, the future of humanity, and western civilization.
1.3. USA - China Dynamics – Trade, Cultural, Military and ICT Considerations
Extended information and sources on this link
- The US is the leading established worldwide power, and China the uncontainable emerging one.
- The US is the leading established worldwide power, and China the uncontainable emerging one.
- To date, internationally, China has been respectful of the WWW and the ITC ecosystem.
- China and the US are increasingly taking different directions with technology.
- Mutual Cultural understanding and respect among countries' leaders is crucial for progress.
- The US may play a great role in how China/Taiwan historically bad relations evolve.
- The USA may play a great role in how China/Russia relations evolve.
- China has a millenary military imperialistic tradition. The US does not.
- Speed of computing has moved from digital to quantum or superposing computing.
- We may end up with two different digital ecosystems: Eastern & Western.
- The positive element is that Chinese change has copy and admires the US lifestyle.
- Chinese may lose short term commercial opportunities due to legacy systems, but….
- China is way ahead in Quantum Computing, which is a new way to solve problems that we could not solve before.
- The big question is: Will the Chinese government system allow the head of state to exercise control of their military leaders and capabilities?
- Some additional elements add complexity to the ICT consideration affecting the US. / China trade and political relations:
1.3.1. A note about Quantum Computing
(QC) is taking convergence to a new unimaginable and unexpected dimension, and it is affecting all aspects of our existence. For a better explanation, watch this video.
1.3.2. A note in Cryptography & Cybersecurity
Today's most encrypted transactions work with a public and private password transmitted separately from point A to B. The speed of processing would be able to break-down any encryption system in matters of seconds, while at today's processing speed would take years of computations. Therefore, QC would no doubt transform the financial and transactional world as we know it today. Thus, Cybersecurity is the most vital aspect of ICT and business digital dependency. As Dr. Ayala expresses it, "There are companies and IT environments that have been hacked and those that do not know that they have been hacked."
1.3.3. Microprocessors the Speed and Velocity factor in ICT exponential development.
-Microprocessors became the center element at all economic stake considerations.
- For Manufacturing microprocessors, you need a solid Intellectual Property Base.
- Only three central countries produce microprocessors. 60% are made in Taiwan. The rest are made in the USA and China.
- An example to understand this complexity: The Microchips for the US. An F-21 fighter plane is manufactured in Taiwan.
- Presently Secretary Pompeo went to the Netherlands asking: Not to sell to China.
- However, China cannot catch up. It imports 3 billion dollars a year of microprocessors.
- Therefore, more geopolitical tensions are unveiling due to these issues.
- UP to 2013, China did well – For now, China cannot go alone without losing market.
- Only five companies worldwide produce microprocessors: TSMC – UMC; INTEL (which is not growing at the exponential desired pace); Global Foundries (owned by MUDABALA); China SMIC (which is not doing so well); and Taiwan (with 60% of the world production and supplying everyone in the marketplace).
1.3.4. Aerospace Engineering / Ballistic Missile capabilities
- While in the US. Aerospace engineering talent developed Mac-5 speed Missiles theory and openly shared as a technological breakthrough, and the USG did not move fast investing in "wind-tunnels" capabilities to implement it. Conversely, the Chinese immediately did it successfully with total accuracy, and it is known that they are working on developing Mac-20 & M-30 capabilities.
- The USA concentrated its new development at increasing technological capabilities for an asymmetrical war -aiming to protect their positions in the Middle East territories. Meanwhile, China shifted from air-carriers, and other conventional war arms and defense systems, to its MAC-5 Missiles carried by atomic submarines.
1.4. Mayor shifting ICT Concepts and Cybersecurity Concerns
Extended information and sources on this link
ICT cycles happen within two years. Therefore, businesses, governments, and organizations that want to survive in a continually changing market have to be ahead of the game by anticipating the velocity of change by acquiring or developing the knowledge and skill to understand technological changes before they happen. Every change also creates new opportunities and threats, being cyberattacks the more critical element for business continuity. Artificial Intelligence and advanced algorithms will determine the future of cybercrime prevention and combat.
1.4.1. Seven Current Leading ICT Concepts
1.4.1.1.- Cybersecurity is the primary concern in the Data & Artificial Intelligence ICT era.
1.4.1.2.- Technological power is characterized by ICT & Science Convergence.
1.4.1.3. - Quantum Computing & Biogenetics is the new force behind the evolution of men's kind.
1.4.1.4. - Biochemical Engineering is the controlling element of men's kind over nature.
1.4.1.5. - Internet of Things in the new service market concept.
1.4.1.6. - World Wide Mobility is now physical and digital, real and virtual.
1.4.1.7. - Tectonics affect system’s architecture – It refers to how technology systems are built accounting for the earth's structures considering them as living systems. (The origin of the word Tectonics – Large scale processes affecting the structure of the earth's layers and crust).
1.4.2. Critical Issues related to the future that need to be accounted for
- Changes in Company workforce relations.
- Quantum Computing & Artificial Intelligence will drive & enhance all data/software.
- Wireless Transmission of electricity.
- LNG Transformational Technologies (China).
- Chemical-GAS.
- GAS Chain improvement technologies & Decarbonization.
- ColdFusion technology is coming if not here.
- Hydrogen production from natural gas.
- Air-water production systems.
- Internet of Things interconnectivity.
- Individual air transportation systems, drones alike.
- New massive transportation systems
- Levitation Trains Technology
- Democratic Management & Chaos
1.5. Business Risk is increasing. ITC is changing very fast. There is no more business as usual
Extended information and sources on this link
- In general, for the time being (in the current cycle), growth is more critical than cash-flows.
- Merger & Acquisitions will continue mainly driven by adding technology to business.
- There is an overall drop-in revenue, due to the US-China Dynamics.
- Europe – Does not swing like the US: Europe is becoming the world's biggest museum.
- Privacy is gone – The right to privacy and isolation is not in the digital era.
- Surveillance capitalism is in the hands of only a few companies worldwide. (Surveillance capitalism is the monetization of data captured through monitoring people's movements and behaviors online and in the physical world. It includes the use and monetization of its associated analytics. Consumer surveillance is most commonly used for targeted marketing and advertising, but also political campaigns and modern communications. Source: whatis.techtarget.com)
- Regulation is totally behind ICT and ICT Changes.
- Genetic and biochemical engineering is here, is not only corporate, is accessible to individuals.
- US & China trade wars. The US is coming back though China's force cannot be stopped.
- US and Chinese governments are granting full freedom, so innovation is significant.
- The US argues that the Chinese government controls their companies.
- A fact that does not hold absolute credit.
- In some areas, the US regulations are considered very strict.
- Europe tries to revive with regulation (is out for lunch)
- Israel and India > AI is very advanced. They are R&D HUB for Apps and solutions.
1.6. The ongoing battle for talent creation, recruitment & retention
"In the new world, it is not the big fish which eats the small fish, it is the fast fish which eats the slow fish." (Klaus Schab Founder and Ex. Chairman, World Economic Forum)
- There is no single organization in the world that has solved the problem of too little talent.
- The battle for talent is a fact; its digital and has many different angles to be tackled.
- The digital skill crisis dramatically affects public and private organizations worldwide.
- Flexibility and an open mind. The digital ecosystem is a constantly changing work environment.
- There are not enough people with the appropriate skills to fill every digital role.
- Lack of digital skills creates a talent crisis damages global productivity & economic growth.
- Universities & traditional training systems are failing to produce all the required digital talent.
- Technology will replace teachers & teaching systems for digital Group & self-education.
- Teachers have to rethink their lecturer role and become mentors in values & work ethics.
- Use Software, video games, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, and augmented reality.
- Appropriated talent can be secured by formation, attract-recruiting, retraining a/o retaining.
- Today corporate strategies shall define all sustainable companies as Service & IT Companies.
- Today a large percentage of work tasks are performed digitally or digitally supported.
- Companies need to plan now to base their HRS strategy upon drastic personnel skill changes.
- Robotics will only replace obsolete wasted human talent due to a lack of training & education.
- All thinking individuals with common sense & digital communication skills are priceless.
- Production lines alone are no longer considered a business with chances of survival.
- Empowerment, initiative, group collaboration, focus on challenging tasks.
- Digital work productivity, as in any other work, it is a function of the motivation degree.
- Belonging, sheering experiences, and self-actualization is critical for any digital working force.
- "Make sure your organization's digital talent feels they are part of the wider group."
- "A sure way to retain people is to avoid hiring senior people from the outside above those you are developing internally. Hiring more senior digital talent from the outside of the organization above those already in place will represent a barrier to growth for young and ambitious employees. It will risk alienating them id sensor outsider decides to shake things up."
- Organizations not thought of as "Digitally Centric" are now finding that they must move into the digital world to compete.
- "25% of organizations around the world will lose market position because of their failure to incorporate digital capabilities."
- "65% of children entering schools today will likely work in roles that do not currently exist."
- "65% of employees feel more loyal toward businesses with purpose." Connecting employee efforts to organizational strategies.
- "64% of employees will go the extra mile for an organization with purpose."
- "42% of employees will rather move jobs every four years for better career opportunities than staying and working up the ranks."
- "Companies that provide advisory services related to career development can increase employee's intent to stay by 37%."
- Flexibility, freedom, and transparency are critical to motivating millennial digital employees.
- New generations are looking for different value propositions that include: Fairness, well defined technological, environmental, social and governance, and high working ethical standards.
- Business needs to understand that young generations millennials and centennials have an entirely different approach to work & career expectations than older generations.
- The growth of social media recruitment is incredible, but furthermore, impress it is that more than 1/3 of the recruiters of the world see social media as their primary source to find talent.
- Organizations need to present an attractive mission & vision to attract Digital talented persons.
- Independently of valuing permanence, talented people want to pensive the possibility to grow and progress.
-Organizations & Countries shall invest heavily, create and promote alliances and all kinds of solutions using artificial intelligence to profile jobs, new fields, trainers, trainees, and developing curriculums to enhance their natural abilities digitally.
1.7.- The need to rethink basic concepts and functionality of education, legal and regulatory frameworks, systems, and institutions
Extended information and sources on this link
Society and countries are already living in a digital era of constant change by innovation and improvements in science and technology due to the information and communications revolution we are witnessing. Society cannot remain analog and therefore disconnected in terms of education, training, legal and regulatory frameworks, ethical standards, social systems, and institutions. If such digital enabling forces do not take place, democracy will be jeopardized by the society's discontent with barter politics, crooked leaderships, unreliable congresses, faulty courts and judges, as well as clientelist political parties, and unfair and corrupt media. The door will be opened to anarchy, chaos, and destructive populism.
SECTION II
General ICT related Economic Trends in Business and Society
ICT refers to technologies that provide access to information through telecommunications. It is similar to Information Technology (IT), but focuses primarily on communication
technologies.
2.1. Digitalization as the driver in most -if not all- living aspects
Extended information and sources on this link
- We enter the 2020s with major global challenges to tackle problems like climate change, diversity, and privacy.
- 2010 - 2020: known for the growth at all cost in mobile and social
- Mobile and social platform are an oligopoly business
- Technology has to be the answer to those main problems.
- Technology will not advance without mineral mining.
- Progress always leaves an environmental footprint.
- The answer will be NO development. Instead, it will be climate mitigation
- The critical point of importance is to have net positive balances after mitigation.
- 53% of the global population (4.1 billion people) are now connected to the Internet.
- In 2019 mobile accounts for 57.8% of the web traffic, compared to only 1.56% in 2010.
- In 2019 the average person spent almost 3 hours online per day (mostly mobile).
- Two thousand nineteen e-commerce sales represented 14% of global retail sales. 2023 forecast = 23%.
- 92.7% of worldwide searches on Google (Position hold since 2009).
- Social media growth in the 2010s - Facebook added 2 billion users in 9 years.
- Facebook is the most popular social media platform with 2.4 billion active users.
- Facebook + Instagram = 27Billion visits/month.
- Visual accounts for most of IT traffic Google & YouTube = 100Billion Visits/month.
- In 2019 WhatsApp was the most downloaded app worldwide / Tik-Tok = most mentioned.
- The global (ICT) industry has a large environmental impact. Its carbon footprint equals that of the aviation industry’s emissions.
- Data centers do not spread out back smoke. However, 10% of the world’s total electricity consumption is used by the internet, and this number will double by 2030.
- The number of connected devices that are in use now exceeds 17Billion.
- (IoT) Internet of Things. Low technology devices: we have now Seven Billion loT devices, (without smartphones, tablets, laptops, fixed phone lines)
- What is the carbon footprint of the internet?
- The number of connected devices that are in use worldwide now exceeds 17 billion, with the number of (loT) devices at 7 billion (that number does not include smartphones, tablets, laptops, or fixed-line phones).
- In 2020 the total (IoT) active connections worldwide is 9.9 billions & it will be 21.5 by 2025
- In 2020 the total active connections worldwide are 21.2 billion & it will be 34.2 billion by 2025. (Source IoT analytics)
2.1.1. - Everything is already Digital and Data-Driven.
- We will have chips everywhere.
- Convergence Consumer.
- Exploration and extraction technologies have changed.
- Fossil fuels and Mineral extraction has to be done now.
- If we do not support legally responsible minerals exploration and extraction with proper net positive mitigation practices, illegal natural resources will remain in the hands of narco-terrorists irregular forces.
2.1.2. - Digital Transportation revolution is here
- CAPEX Reduction Shared transportation.
- Fewer cars are sold every year.
- There is a dramatic decrease in persons applying for a driver's license.
- There is a great effect, mostly in urban Social OPEX / CAPEX Ratios.
- Traffic congestion is going to disappear.
- Large urban areas will liberate 20% to 40% of free parking in the next 10 to 20 years.
- Energy Transition will be gradual in different areas of the world, but it is beyond contestation.
2.1.3. Understanding Technology Convergence as today’s overall Main Stream
2.1.3.1. Convergence
Definition: “Technological convergence is a tendency for technologies that were originally quite unrelated to become more closely integrated and even unified as they develop and advance.” In terms of ICT:
CV (Convergence) = ƒ: (ICT / IoT) + BIO + CHEM & MAT + NANO/QUANTIC +
ROBO + GENETICS) Tectonics > The new social understanding of the applied theory of how to architect converging systems based on the knowledge of how ICT interact at the same time with converging and diverging transforming forces.
2.1.3.2. ICT – Information & Communications Technologies' basic components. Technologies that combined allow people and organizations to interact digitally. Critical understanding of the Tech Stack.
2.1.3.3. - Communications Technology’s Stack
The interactive combination of technologies that allow digital communication among people and organizations.
- Hardware: Technologically, any physical elements that form a system capable of transmitting a/o receiving electronic messages.
- Internet Access. Cable or wireless Connection to the Internet by PCs., Smartphones, or other smart devices.
- Software. Sets of digital instructions, data, or programs (applications or scripts) used to execute computing tasks.
- Digital Data. A digital sum of electronic messages that can be interpreted by various software technologies in order to derive information sequences from which we further imply knowledge.
- Storage & Cloud Computing – Data Centers available for multiple users over the internet. There is an enterprise, public, and hybrid clouds. Ej. Amazon AWS.
- Digital Transactions. Electronic or online paperless transactions between people and organizations.
2.1.3.4. (IoT) Internet of Things
Every industry is or will be affected in the brief term by IoT.
- IoT & IoT data & services, defined as “an evolving reality, activity, and concept representing systems of interrelated computing devices and digital machines, objects, plants, animals or people that are provided with unique identifiers and the ability to transfer data over a network without requiring human-to-human or human to computer interaction.” IoT is the interconnection through the internet of Any One, body, thing, device, context, service, business, path, network, any place, anywhere. In particular, IoT refers to internet systems that, while connecting comprise: Devise connection, Data sensing, Communication, Data Analysis, Data value, and generate Human Value. IoT integrates intelligence and actions, automation, and the ecosystem. We recommend reading this piece.
2.1.3.4 Nano & Bits. - Nanotechnologies & Bits
Described as the manipulation of matter and its special properties on an atomic, molecular, and supramolecular scale. It relates to the quantum mechanicals within the quantum realm scale. Nanotechnologies relate to bits or particles, parts, or qualities of something, therefore, to a unit of data. The definition of Bits concept that started from the identity of two concepts, it evolved into the portmanteau of a binary set, and its definition at a quantum level represent any set of possible interactive combination of transformation represented by convergence, disruption or both at the same time.
2.1.3.5 Know & Neuro
In general, the theoretical understanding of a subject based upon facts, information, and skills acquired through experience. Concerning technology convergence is the understanding of how systems work from nature to men (neurons), animal (neurons), plants (bio), genetics, chemistry, and man made things. One of the most important knowledge awareness related to ICT is the late men understanding of the neuro systems as the baseline for getting to know all brain systems, brain conceived thoughts, and brain-controlled or derivative actions. This new knowledge of the combination of neuro and knowledge is enabling men kind to start understanding and being a conscious and active part of the evolution process. Something until now reserved to nature alone and the unknown, and defiantly unexplained and left to simple acts of fate.
2.1.3.6. Bio. – Biotechnology
The ICT convergence includes biology enhanced by Biotechnology. It represents the unique component that enables us as a civilization to discover with accurate statistical significance how living systems are structured and can change at the level of genes and cells, in essence how to understand, alter and manipulate the fundamental structures living organisms. It includes bio-molecular engineering, biomedical engineering, and bio-manufacturing. Biotech works with atomic science, atomic maps, proteomics, bioinformatics, genomics mapping, DNA libraries, sequencing, and DNA innovation as well as quality cloning techniques. Biotechnology has been exponentially enhanced by ICT in each of all the following related fields: Expression Vectors, Molecular Markers, Fertilization, Embryo Transfer, Transfection Methods, Hybridization, Isolation of cultures, Monoclonal Antibodies, Bacterial Genomes, Intellectual Property Rights, Intellectual Property Protection.
- Note on the CRISPR effect.
2.1.3.7. Robotics.
Automated equipment or machines -programmed to accomplish specific repetitive tasks- are perceived as enemies of traditional labor. However, in the digital era, robotics shall be appreciated as a very positive factor that is taking basic human labor to higher technical and intellectual working conditions, better compensation, and higher living standards. Another critical element in ICT convergence, robotics acts as the key mechanical leverage for all other converging fields. We recommend this article for additional analysis.
2.1.3.8. - Quantum. Quantum Computing
- As opposed to just defined values of (1s or 0s), which is how a classical computing calculation is performed (QC) is a revolutionary model of computation by superposition of undefined values, entanglement, contrastive and disruptive interferences, and spinning. It works with shallow temperatures and atomic particles, atoms, ions, and superconducting “qubits” from semiconductor materials, particles that can be (1s or 0s) at the same time. Therefore, statistical capabilities and possibilities are multiplied by a million times.
- Quantum computing is enhancing convergence dynamics, is changing science, genomics knowledge, health diagnosis and cures, machine learning methods for Artificial Intelligence and thinking computer development, virtual reality, data centers, new material creation and all kind of computational problem solving, as complex as chemical bonding and nature’s simulation. We recommend reading this article.
2.1.3.9. Tectonics. The term concerning ITC is the understanding of how to architect changing dimensions of interrelated systems
The analogy comes from how our plant and or any mass of energy or matter works. In the case of the earth, it is a genetic architecture of different plaques and spaces that form our planet. Tectonics relates to understanding systems comprised of transforming forces that are convergent and forces that are divergent and also of stages where both types of forces coincide. The real ITC revolution we are experiencing as a civilization relates to knowledge of the quantic levels of energy and matter.
Tectonics the way wise persons like Dr. Orlando Ayala is the art adapting tectonic principles to human behavior, by scientifically architecting new ICT systems combining 7 different layers or forces. We recommend reading this paper.
2.1.3.9.1. Atoms. Atoms can be considered intelligent as they provide energy from the center to the periphery. In fact, there are 27 billion intelligent identified atoms.
2.1.3.9.2. Computing Power. Cloud, Quantic and Storage Computing. Determined by development of further misprocessing capacity.
2.1.3.9.3. The Network Effect. Represented in real life by today’s social democratization and the profound challenge to the central force. We suggest these videos to go in depth.
2.1.3.9.4. The Massive Data creation, process and Analytics. In the last 5 years we have created, processed, storage, analyzed and converted in information and knowledge more data than in the entire history of mankind.
2.1.3.9.5. Cognitive Computation. It relates to the fact that throughout ICT and new digital spaces, men now are capable of visualizing, listening, understanding, feeling, touching, and even smelling. This is a good introduction to the subject.
2.1.3.9.6. Augmented Reality. A further development in tectonic systems and computing that enable us to have profound immersions in virtual reality systems and environments with great capabilities to help our education learning by experiencing sensations and actual manipulation of things and concepts. An area in which China is a head of all other players.
2.1.3.9.7. Artificial Intelligence. Is the space where all the above-mentioned ICT Tectonic plaques collision and converge. It is the system that produces statistical certainty results from all evolving computation activities created by men knowledge empowered by the ICT revolution. A great book to understand the challenges this poses is The Big Nine, by Amy Webb.
2.1.3.10. Consequences:
- New but increasingly different living standards.
- Incremental social and spiritual identity crisis due to effects of ITC in every individual life.
- Incremental social and spiritual identity crisis due to effects of ITC in every individual life.
- Less intermediation in all aspects of life.
- ITC personalization and privacy inexistence.
- Decentralizing central powers.
- Web driven massive behavior and reactions.
- Need for authentic content and credible communicational facts offer.
- Larger world wide political and governmental mistrust and discontent.
2.1. (ESG) Environmental social & governance practices > + technological change (TESG)
- Capital and financial Markets, investors, analysts, specialized media and all business-industry experts are now using ESG as the new performance scale to weight corporation and all sort of business and organizations in relation to their compliance with environmental, social and governance responsibilities. Under ESG related parameters and information, consumers and governments also are now constantly observing how business mitigate their environmental foot-print, save energy, contribute to climate change and also how they incorporate corporate governance, transparency and anticorruption principles within their operational policies and reporting material.
- Recommended reading: The letter of the Black Rock Chairman.
- Affect markets access to lending, increments risk etc.
- Ecopetrol is ahead of the game. We shall organize and continue leading.
- Capital markets reaction in ESG
- Our standard should be TESG (Technology, Environmental, Social and Governance)
- Our standard should be TESG (Technology, Environmental, Social and Governance)
- Companies without ESG reporting must plan for adversity from capital markets ARVESC - German Fund. (DWL). Software Data. ESG Scores > You can check 10 years back whether they have prevented the tragedy. Ej. VOLKSWAGEN CASE. They have the software to evaluate companies. It produces a score and analyzes in a microsecond, depending on the areas that you may analyze.
- Financial Markets are out of the Oil & Gas industry.
- Transportation revolution effect & forecast.
- Valuation of the companies will collapse and has to change. Except uncertainty.
- Plan for petroleum prices to fall from 60’s to $20 dollars.
- Exploration and Extraction OPEX is now a full function of new technologies.
2.3. The critical importance of Mineral Mining for communications, energy, health and technological change
Extended information and sources on this link
- Gold is the only worldwide currency that can hold its value.
- Gold & Cooper > Critical > Cobalt Lithium, Nickel, Sulfate / Ferro-nickel
- Proper resources policy for the country
- We must think about what is my next Ecopetrol.
- We have to plan for a short-term transition into Eco-energy
- We have to identify and plan as a Public governmental partially owned, privately managed, ITC resource driven corporate group.
2.4. Growth of Autonomous Equipment is here
- From training to doing.
- Attached ethical debate (ej. What happens if Robots become the ESMAT force).
- Preventing actions in labor relations shall be prepared.
- An employee capability, up-grade plan shall be drowned in every organization.
2.5. Continue M&A and Consolidation of Small and Medium Business
- In the Digital era all business is becoming technology driven.
- All companies shall define themselves as Service and as Technology business.
- Technology cycles on average come in 18 months cycles. Survival depends on anticipating them and choosing the technologies that will not be obsolete in the coming cycle.
- A visible trend is a growing path of mergers and acquisitions – Growth Ƒ: ∆(M&A)
- There are also plenty Acquisitions of SMEs IT driven companies that may complement and enhance traditional business.
2.6. Demographics & Social changes disruptions
- Worldwide Population flows. Historical and forecasted.
- Migrations effect driven by job opportunities, Political population displacement aging effect.
- Nomad ITC young professionals’ effect favors multi-cultural, national and ethnical talent.
- Talented young people move globally
- Life expectancy is dramatically increasing as Science & Technology advances.
- People will work longer as their longevity and good health expands so to ICT & Science changes.
- Collapse of pensions’ system with dramatic effect on people’s lives
- People will have to save more to retain earning for their future, since the math for pensions will not hold long.
- There is a stronger aging population effect in developed nations.
- 20% to 30% of the workforce will disappear in S Korea – China – Germany.
- Corporations shall account for and understand millennial and centennial behavior patterns.
2.7. Social disparities will be amplified by ICT changes
- The knowledge Gap ins dramatically increasing
- Today digital illiteracy is a worse problem than physical-economic poverty
- Resistance to change in analog older people is becoming a problem as life expectancy grows
- Wealth and income disparities increase as total wealth generation & overall living standards to.
- ICT revolution increases the knowledge gaps & it’s becoming a bigger concern than income & poverty gaps.
2.8. Major shifts in Skill Requirement. The Battle for Talent is long here
- The US reports 4.5 % unemployment but the regional disparities are astronomical.
- Migrations are incremental, both voluntary and forced.
- Talent attraction will increase labor disparities.
- Urban Centers are going to be more important every day.
- Job’s offer is every day more qualified.
- The nature of almost all conventional jobs is changing.
- Some professions will be displaced and disappear.
- New professions are appearing mostly related to IT and technology-driven needs.
- Other professions have labor deficit like: Geriatric, nursing, in general, all in the health industry
2.9. The transportation revolution is coming and it affects demand for O&G
Extended information and sources on this link
- Developing nations with 30 to 50% less combustion engine cars will liberate urban spaces
- It will create free spaces from current parking and community higher living standards
- Fewer cars will increase people’s purchasing power by a trillion dollars
- Fewer cars that increase people’s ability to move easily in major urban centers
2.10. We are living the boom of technology services and technology experiences
Extended information and sources on this link
- We will continue have mayor ICT changes every 18 months
- Great opportunities are perceived in the beginning decade
- The tourism and travel Industry will grow worldwide, youngsters are travelers, people are looking for new destinations and a broader type of tourism experiences.
- Health care industry (Nursing presents the biggest w/w gap in all professions)
- Veterinary services are in great demand.
- In a recent survey in America people prefer to spend on their pets than in their own heath
- Petcare industry is growing at 7% to 8% a year.
- Customer segmentation is the main driver for digital marketing and trade.
- Marketing, in general, is changing dynamically.
- An example is the Latino segment in the US.
- Today demographics are geo-referenced and driven by ethnicity.
- The Indian and Asian segments conquest all the US’s research labs. etc.
- A resent IT consumer study shows that 80% of decisions are made by women
- Today consumer goods companies are talking mostly to women.
- Educational and training deficits are dictated by ICT & demographic changes.
- Governments have to continue revising educational systems and retraining people to work,
- Education will include absolute reality and Artificial Intelligence concepts
- The effect of Tectonic shifts must be well understood.
- New concepts of corporate communications based upon individual customer profiles.
- Command centers or war rooms based on data architecture and data centers
- Corporate communication strategies are dynamic and demand social media analytics
- Privacy and ICT privacy invasion data control of individuals is one of today’s major concerns.
Recommended Sources and Bibliography
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Berkeley School of Information (2019) Cryptography for Cyber and Network Security. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2i5G7yQJEM&feature=emb_title
Burgess, M. (2018) What is the Internet of Things? WIRED explains. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/internet-of-things-what-is-explained-iot
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